Microsoft’s Digital Ad Goal: Anticipate…Consumer Behavior Faster than the Speed of Thought

Both Google and Microsoft are in a race to push the boundaries of digital advertising so they can better serve brands and marketers. Microsoft is now again in the spotlight because of its attempt to acquire Yahoo! In November 2006, my group CDD and the USPIRG filed a complaint at the FTC focused on threats to privacy and consumer welfare from digital advertising. We had a special focus on Microsoft and its adCenter work, and have kept an eye on the company every since (along with our watch on Google). Today, Microsoft’s adCenter Lab issued a press release summarizing some of its latest work to expand the capabilities of interactive advertising. Here is an excerpt to ponder:

“We believe the technical advances and intelligence we are creating at adCenter Labs can change the game of online advertising,” said Tarek Najm, technical fellow at Microsoft. “Solutions to today’s challenges must be capable of handling and understanding the complexity of vast amounts of data. To address that challenge, we are developing advertising algorithms that can anticipate and understand consumer behavior faster than the speed of thought, so that we can help advertisers create more efficient and relevant user experiences.”


	

Diane Mermigas is a trade reporter who has covered media and communications for a variety of publications. Here is a very insightful excerpt from her Feb. 5th, 2008 article:“…The ultimate irony is that Microsoft and Google are being driven by the same fear and greed: a penchant for market monopoly, a passion for manipulation and an obsession with losing a strategic advantage. Both companies understand that interactive advertising and commerce will provide the golden profit pipeline…Google…has a good chance of winning the ongoing bidding for wireless spectrum–a nearly $5 billion bet that it can make many times that managing user data, advertiser pitches and online transactions in its own branded space…Google CEO Eric Schmidt is openly taking aim at selling advertising and subsequent transactions on the world’s 3 billion mobile phones and other portable devices…If the deal goes through as expected, look for Google to ramp up its search-based personal data mining and marketing across all digital interactive platforms. It will bore deeper into tracking and reporting on users’ Web selections and activities. Auctioning premium connections with target consumers and mining the long tail of products and services is Google’s new advertising industry paradigm…”

from: Google v Microsoft: Fear and Loathing in Merger Land. Diane Mermigas. Mediapost.

Ad Age on some of the methods used with online advertising (inc. for Google & Microsoft)

from Abbey Klaassen’s 2.4.08 article on Microsoft’s proposed Yahoo! takeover, entitled “They’ll still be Chasing Google.” [excerpt]: “The merger could also provide advertisers with a broader suite of online ad offerings and allow them to better integrate their search ads with display, video and even in-game units. In theory, at least, the combination of those formats allows marketers to influence consumers’ opinions about a product or brand, create demand for that brand and fulfill or track that demand through a transaction such as a search. It also allows them to measure and attribute the value of the different types of ads consumers encounter on the path to a purchase — for example whether John Doe has seen a display ad, and is then prompted to search for the product advertised.”

We have long been worried about the failure of Google to candidly address the numerous policy issues involving its own growing dominance in the online ad market, especially the implications of the pending DoubleClick acquisition. Today, David Drummond, Google’s senior VP, posted a piece on the corporate policy blog on Microsoft’s attempted takeover of Yahoo! Mr. Drummond suggested that the “underlying principles of the Internet’s openness and innovation” were at stake if such a merger occurred.

But missing from the piece was any acknowledgment of Google’s own dominant role in interactive advertising; how it would be incorporating the client base and perspectives of the Fortune 1500 style users of DoubleClick’s data targeting/delivery system; its own aggressive plans to extend its market share in search to almost every other sector of the advertising and marketing business. In a glaring and telling omission, Mr. Drummond never used the “P” word–privacy. Because Google’s failure to seriously address the privacy implications of its own business practices–especially in the context of DoubleClick–is one of the most troubling and telling aspects about its future plans for the digital media.

Mr. Drummond does raise important questions that must be addressed as we review Microsoft’s plans for expansion, including the likely scenario of bundling operating system and desktop services with data collection and marketing. But Google should acknowledge that it was Microsoft that was the leading corporate opponent as it sought to win approval by the FTC of its DoubleClick deal. There’s a “tit for tat” quality to Mr. Drummond’s post. Mr. Drummond’s conveniently ignores the real question about preserving an open and innovative Internet. What happens to online publishing, diversity of expression, privacy, and innovation when we end up with only two mega giants–Google and Microsoft–in control of online advertising? And who both ultimately have the same data collection, micro-targeting across all platforms and applications, business model?

The Microsoft/Yahoo! Threats to Privacy Issues Exemplied by Ad Industry Reaction to Deal

Once again, we thank the ad industry for writing our blog (and regulatory!) copy: “”I think what we lose in being able to negotiate with both of them we’ll gain with new opportunities. The biggest opportunity would be to leverage Yahoo’s behavioral targeting across Microsoft’s relationships with Facebook, XBox and Massive, which has the ability to dynamically insert ads in console games.”–Andrea Kerr Redniss, SVP, Optimedia US.”

from: Madison Avenue: We Love MSFT-YHOO. Silicon Valley Insider. Feb. 1, 2008.

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Prof. Joe

We have been privileged to work with Prof. Joe Turow of the Univ. of Penn.’s Annenberg School over the last few months on new media and marketing merger issues. Last fall, we asked him to brief the FTC and the Congress on the Google/DoubleClick merger. Prof. Turow brings a all-too-rare independent analysis to the critical issues involving the relationship of digital marketing to democratic civil society. We’re pleased the Washington Post, AP, and others cited him today in their coverage of the proposed deal. Here’s the full statement we helped send out to reporters yesterday: “Microsoft’s decision to buy Yahoo is a direct result of the decision by the FTC to allow Google to purchase DoubleClick. It is further evidence that despite the appearance of unlimited choice in the new media environment, people’s activities will be tracked and shaped by a very small number of companies who care far more about surveillance and targeted advertising than the public interest. The Federal government, which should have been the guardian of the public interest, has dropped the ball. A concerned public ought to call its political leaders to account about the problematic ways they are allowing the new digital world to develop.”

Joseph Turow is Robert Lewis Shayon Professor of Communication at the Annenberg School for Communication of the University of Pennsylvania. He is the author of over 70 articles and 10 books on mass media industries, including Niche Envy: Marketing Discrimination in the Digital Age (MIT Press, 2006), and the editor of The Hyperlinked Society: Questioning Connections in the Digital Age (University of Michigan Press, forthcoming).

Privacy Threats from a Microsoft-Yahoo! Combine

Just to get the regulatory review ball rolling. Some of the areas we want Congress and the European Commission to investigate (should a deal be consummated).

With a few links to help lead the way!
Microsoft’s AdCenter data collection system.
Microsoft’s online ad laboratory agenda.
Microsoft’s data collection in-game acquisition, Massive.
Microsoft’s 2007 online ad exchange acquisition, AdECN.

Yahoo!s acquisition of online ad exchange, Right Media.
Yahoo!s acquisition of behavioral marketing network, Blue Lithium.
Yahoo!s new online ad system, including Smart Ads.

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The Net’s “Long-Tail”–a Leash Controlled by Two Giants & FTC Bungles Merger Review

Just a few added thoughts on the proposed Microsoft-Yahoo! deal. We think there needs to be real soul-searching by Congress and the FTC on how it addressed the Google/DoubleClick deal and the related spate of new media mergers in 2007. We told both Hill leaders and the FTC that they needed to explore the larger dimensions of this deal–including its impact on the diversity of online publishing (that’s because whomever controls the “monetization” engine of the online ad biz becomes the critical controller). When Microsoft, Yahoo!, Time Warner and the others went on a post GoogleClick shopping spree, we said the FTC should reject these mergers until they had examined the entire online ad market. But the commission failed to do so, in our opinion.

So now as a proposed Yahoo! takeover by Microsoft is considered, one serious concern is that a merger brings with it newly acquired assets that further add to concerns over consolidation and data privacy. The FTC approved without safeguards the $6 billion takeover of aQuantive by Microsoft. The FTC approved without safeguards the takeover by Yahoo! of behavioral targeting ad network Blue Lithium. The FTC approved without safeguards Yahoo!s acquisition of online ad exchange (and data collection system) known as Right Media. There have been other purchases as well by the two companies.

Congress will need to investigate the implications to both competition and consumer privacy: neither the FTC nor DoJ can be trusted to address these concerns. There are also human right issues, given Microsoft’s own work in China. We will be following this deal closely, including examining the implications of a Yahoo!-Microsoft digital combine.

Microsoft, Yahoo!, Google, DoubleClick Mergers: The "new media" Media Monopoly: Statement of Jeff Chester

Microsoft/Yahoo!, Google/DoubleClick et al: The Emerging “New Media” Media Monopoly
Consolidation of the Online Advertising Business Illustrates Failure of FTC and Antitrust Process
Privacy Threats Online to Consumers Will Grow: Federal Safeguards on Data Collection Urgently Required
Consequences to Democratic Discourse Must be Examined

Today’s proposed acquisition by Microsoft of Yahoo!, if consummated, will create a powerful interactive Internet interactive duopoly in online media. Google and Microsoft will have inordinate power to shape the online communications marketplace, including journalism, entertainment and advertising. The once most potentially democratic of all mediums—the Net—is being shaped by the same powerful forces that consolidated the “older” media of broadcasting and newspapers. There are consequences to democratic societies everywhere, as two digital gatekeepers are likely to control how the Internet and other interactive media evolve. In an era when individuals are increasingly conducting their personal, social and political lives online, the corporations that control the digital experience will have a far-reaching influence over every aspect of society.

The failure of the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) and the Congress to adequately address the emerging consolidation in the online advertising business helped lead to this proposed transaction. Two years ago [November 2006], the Center for Digital Democracy (CDD) and US Public Interest Research Group (USPIRG) petitioned the FTC to open up an antitrust investigation into the growing consolidation of the online ad business. We and other groups asked the FTC to impose competition safeguards in the Google/DoubleClick deal. The FTC failed to do both and has now placed consumers and competitors at risk. Beyond competition safeguards, the proposed deal underscores the need for both the FTC and the Congress to enact policies that will protect consumer data online. They are already at risk, as we reminded the FTC in an amended complaint and letter last November. In an online era dominated by digital behemoths, consumers will be more vulnerable to having their personal information become the property of the GoogleClick’s and Microhoo’s!

Google’s mobile vision–Promoting location-based fast food marketing

excerpt: “The idea of location-based advertising, in which advertisers use the location of mobile phone user to send targeted advertising, also won support from Google chairman Eric Schmidt.

He used the example of how an advertiser of fast-food could target a user with advertising when he or she was near a restaurant.”

from: China’s mobile network: a big brother surveillance tool? AFP. January 27, 2008